The Modelling-Paper Mafiosi

John Edmunds is on prime of the world. He’s one of many modelling-paper mafiosi. The London, U.Ok., professor is a key authorities advisor on COVID-19-related insurance policies. Edmunds additionally was a co-author of one of many main modelling papers1 which have been used to persuade the plenty that vigilance in opposition to new variant B.1.1.7 ought to be their prime precedence.

And Edmunds co-wrote an influential January 21, 2021 report2 that concluded, “There is a realistic possibility that VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of death compared to non-VOC viruses.”

In addition, he speaks typically to reporters concerning the deadliness3 of the brand new variant.4 Edmunds tells them, for instance, {that a} “disaster”5 would ensue if lockdowns are eased too quickly, as a result of what first should be accomplished is to “vaccinate much, much, much more widely than the elderly.”6

Follow the Funds

Edmunds occurs to be the partner of somebody who, a minimum of till April 2020, was an worker of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and held shares within the firm. (Edmunds would not disclose this in any of his media interviews that I’ve learn and watched. He additionally would not disclose his personal inventory holdings.)

According to an April 2020 Daily Telegraph7 article,8 Edmunds’s spouse is Jeanne Pimenta and she or he works for GSK. The Daily Telegraph article states Edmunds asserted his accomplice had just lately resigned from GSK. So it is unclear whether or not Pimenta at present works there or not.

I did somewhat digging and located that the one Jeanne Pimenta LinkedIn profile9 signifies she’s at present director of epidemiology at GSK, whereas Jeanne Pimenta’s ResearchGate profile10 says she’s an epidemiologist at BioMarin Pharmaceutical. (More about Edmunds being married to a gift or former Glaxo worker within the subsequent part of this article.)

In any case, GSK’s monetary success is skyrocketing. On February 311 the corporate introduced it is collaborating with mRNA-vaccine firm CureVac to spend 150 million euros — roughly $180 million — to make vaccines for the new variants.

That successfully provides them first-entrant benefit in vaccines for the brand new variants. And that very same February 3 information launch12 touts the new-variant vaccines as additionally capable of function “booster” pictures after the preliminary rounds of vaccination. In addition, GSK joined forces with CureVac to pump out, later this 12 months, 100 million doses of CureVac’s “first-generation” COVID-19 vaccine referred to as “CvnCoV.”13

Not solely that: this fall14 GSK along with one other worldwide pharmaceutical agency, Sanofi, are scheduled to start out producing what may turn into as much as 1 billion doses of their COVID-19 vaccine yearly.15 GSK’s understated February 3 announcement16 of its This autumn 2020 monetary outcomes stated it should “continue to expect meaningful improvement in revenues and margins” as a result of they’re “building a high-value biopharma pipeline.”

Note that GSK and different pharma firms17 like Moderna and Pfizer18 are not responsible for damage and compensation funds to folks significantly injured and killed by COVID-19 vaccines. Governments19 can pay as an alternative — that’s, if these injured and killed and their family members are capable of beat the lengthy odds20 and get any compensation in any respect.

And a exceptional February 8, 2021,21 investigative report within the German information outlet Welt Am Sonntag (which interprets to World on Sunday) reveals one other impetus for the wildly inaccurate modelling governments use to maintain populations in a state of worry and management.

The German article exhibits that in March 2020 authorities officers enlisted “leading scientists from several research institutes and universities. Together, they were to produce a [mathematical-modelling] paper that would serve as legitimization for further tough political measures.”

These scientists obediently wrote a modelling paper tailor-made to the federal government’s directions. The then-secret paper asserted that if lockdown measures have been lifted instantly, as much as 1 million Germans would die from COVID-19, some “agonizingly at home, gasping for breath,” after being turned away from overflowing hospitals.

Edmunds Is Deeply Invested within the Vaccine World

There’s nonetheless extra to the online of cash and affect surrounding Edmunds and different modelling-paper mafiosi, together with Neil Ferguson.

The first new-variant modelling paper Edmunds co-wrote, which was posted on December 23, 202022 was co-authored together with his fellow members of the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases on the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). People within the heart’s COVID-19 Working Group additionally contributed.

The modelling paper was posted on the e-journal medrχiv, which publishes solely non-peer-reviewed papers. The journal is the creation of a corporation led by Facebook head Mark Zuckerberg and his spouse.23 I talk about medrχiv and the Zuckerberg connection in my February 3 article24 on the baselessness for the modelling papers that declare the brand new variants are very harmful.

Edmunds is also dean of the LSHTM’s Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health. I contacted the establishment’s media-relations division to request an interview with one of many December 23, 2020, modelling paper’s authors. I did not obtain a response.

In a February 2017 video interview,25 Edmunds enthused that the LSHTM makes a speciality of each facet of vaccine improvement, from primary science to large-scale medical trials.

In the video he additionally touts utilizing mathematical modelling as a great way to indicate that vaccines defend people and society. (And amongst different issues he describes his group’s efforts in giving youngsters flu vaccines and — at the side of Public Health England — selling human papillomavirus [HPV] vaccines for ladies and boys.)

In addition, Edmunds is a key member of the UK Vaccine Network26 (which till just lately was generally known as the UK Vaccines Network — the URL for the group has “UK Vaccines Network”27 in it).

And he is a member of the U.Ok. authorities’s Science Advisory Group for Emergencies28 (SAGE), which offers COVID-measure recommendation — a lot of it associated to the unprecedentedly forceful push for mass vaccination — to U.Ok. prime minister Boris Johnson and his cupboard.

On prime of that, Edmunds is a member of the U.Ok. authorities’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG).29 It works hand in hand with SAGE, and it additionally closely promotes vaccination.

And as talked about earlier, Edmunds is married to a present or former GSK worker. A 2015 article that Edmunds co-authored states beneath “Competing interests” for Edmunds that “My partner works for GSK.”30 Similarly, on the NERVTAG web site’s conflict-disclosure pages — which for some purpose have not been up to date since October 201731 — it reveals that Edmunds’s partner works for GSK.

As a fast different be aware, the “Author Contributions and Acknowledgements” part of the PDF of the December 23 modelling evaluation32 of B.1.1.7 (pages 15 and 16) exhibits that nearly the entire paper’s authors and members of the modelling heart’s COVID-19 Working Group obtain funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) and/or Wellcome Trust. (By the best way, a seek for Wellcome Trust yields the Wellcome web site.33)

And there’s extra to the Edmunds story. Among different of my finds: he is additionally on the Scientific Advisory Board34 for the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI).35 CEPI was created primarily by the BMGF, the World Economic Forum and the main pharma firm Wellcome.

CEPI’s web site states36 it was “launched in Davos [at the meeting of the World Economic Forum in January] 2017 to develop vaccines to stop future epidemics. Our mission is to accelerate the development of vaccines against emerging infectious diseases and enable equitable access to these vaccines for people during outbreaks.”

Investigative journalist Vanessa Beeley final 12 months wrote a must-read two-part37 evaluation of the ties between the important thing people, establishments, firms and funders of the UK’s COVID-19 response. She talked about that GSK is working with CEPI to develop COVID-19 vaccines. This alliance continues to be going sturdy38 immediately.

Note additionally that the LSHTM’s Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, which Edmunds heads, is primarily funded by the BMGF and the Gavi alliance. (Gavi promotes mass vaccination of individuals world wide — together with by quarterbacking the COVAX program.

Gavi’s largest funders embody the BMGF. Doctors Without Borders has criticized Gavi39 for being “aimed more at supporting drug-industry desires to promote new products than at finding the most efficient and sustainable means for fighting the diseases of poverty.”)

BMGF funding for the LSHTM’s Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health is rising very quick. For instance, BMGF’s new grants to the school rose from $4.9 million in 2013-2014 (see web page 14 [p. 9 in the PDF] of the LSHTM’s 2014 annual report40) to $13.19 million in 2015-2016 (see web page 14 [p. 9 in the PDF] of the LSHTM’s 2016 annual report41) (prime new analysis grants to every college on the LSHTM stopped being reported within the annual studies after 2017).

Funding from the BMGF to the LSHTM as a complete was 30.2 million kilos ($40.2 million) in 2017-2018 (see web page 9 [p. 6 in the PDF] within the faculty’s 2018 annual report42). By the best way, the LSHTM additionally has a Vaccines Manufacturing Innovation Centre.43 It develops, checks and commercializes vaccines. (I could not discover any information on the place the vaccines heart’s funding comes from.)

The vaccines heart additionally performs affiliated actions like combating “vaccine hesitancy.” The latter contains the Vaccine Confidence Project.44 The challenge’s said goal is,45 amongst different issues, “to provide analysis and guidance for early response and engagement with the public to ensure sustained confidence in vaccines and immunisation.”

The Vaccine Confidence Project’s director is LSHTM professor Heidi Larson.46 For greater than a decade she’s been researching tips on how to fight vaccine hesitancy. LSHTM47 underpins the challenge, which is also a member of the WHO’s Vaccine Safety Net.48

More Modelling Mafiosi

Here’s information about two different members of this membership:

Public Health England (PHE) issued its first detailed report on the brand new variant in late December 202049 and continues to offer updates.50 None of their studies are peer-reviewed. One of the highest-profile co-authors of the PHE studies is PHE director Susan Hopkins.51 She’s additionally a professor of infectious illnesses at Imperial College London.52 The faculty receives tens of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} a 12 months from the BMGF.

See for instance this grant,53 this one,54 this one55 and this one.56 (I emailed PHE media relations to request an interview about PHE’s new-variants studies. PHE communications particular person Zahra Vindhani responded, “Dr. Hopkins won’t have the capacity for this in the upcoming weeks, and we aren’t able to confirm anyone else for this either.”)

PHE is guided in its method to vaccination by PHE’s “Strategic Priority 1” for combating infectious illnesses in 2020 to 2025. It is to “Optimise vaccine provision and reduce vaccine preventable diseases in England” (see p. 9 of PHE’s Infectious Disease Strategy 2020-202557).

Neil Ferguson is a co-author of the PHE studies and likewise of a broadly quoted December 31 modelling paper58 on the dangerousness of B.1.1.7. He’s performing director of the Imperial College London-based Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium.59

Ferguson’s modelling has been extraordinarily defective once more through the years. This has been totally documented. For instance, as investigative journalist Beeley wrote in Part One60 of a two-part investigative report in April-May 2020, Ferguson’s modelling over-estimated by about 3 million-fold the demise toll from the hen flu, also called H5N1.

As a end result, some huge cash was made by bird-flu-vaccine producers, starting from Roche (for its now-infamous, ineffective Tamiflu61) to Sanofi,62 and so they have been used broadly.63

Ferguson additionally grossly overestimated the results of swine flu, or H1N1. As a end result, hundreds of thousands of individuals have been needlessly given GSK’s Pandemrix.64 It brought about mind injury, primarily narcolepsy65 and cataplexy, in tons of if not hundreds of vaccine recipients, principally youngsters. The pharma big was granted no fault in any injury claims.66

Therefore the British authorities paid greater than 60 million kilos (roughly $80 million at 2017 conversion charges) to victims.67 (And as talked about earlier on this article, GSK and different pharma firms68 are equally shielded from having to pay damages to folks injured or killed by their COVID-19 vaccines.)

Ferguson is also a member, along with Edmunds and others, of SAGE.69

Another group he is a member of is the extremely influential NERVTAG.70 It’s the group that issued the January 21, 202171 warning, talked about earlier on this article, that B.1.1.7 is lethal.

Ferguson is a NERVTAG member regardless that he was reported to have resigned final spring72 after being caught visiting together with his married lover when everybody in England was imagined to solely be having contact with members of their very own households (primarily based largely on Ferguson’s modelling and his urging the federal government to lock the nation down).

Ferguson is also a member73 of the UK Vaccines Network,74 together with Edmunds and others such because the Network chair Chris Whitty, who’s additionally the U.Ok. authorities’s prime COVID-19 adviser.

The community’s focus, in response to its web site, “to support the [U.K.] government to identify and shortlist targeted investment opportunities for the most promising vaccines and vaccine technologies that will help combat infectious diseases with epidemic potential, and to address structural issues related to the UK’s broader vaccine infrastructure.”

These ties bind Edmunds, Ferguson and Hopkins — together with the remainder of the modelling-paper mafiosi — to the bidding of governments, Big Pharma, Bill Gates and different highly effective gamers. They current a picture of being totally dedicated to the general public good, whereas in reality actively serving to to destroy it.

Editor’s Note: This is a reprint of an article by Rosemary Frei. She has a grasp of science in molecular biology from the Faculty of Medicine on the University of Calgary and was a contract medical journalist for 22 years. She is now an unbiased investigative journalist in Canada.


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