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Ranking the Sweet 16 teams’ chances to win it all, from Gonzaga on down


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It’s not Gonzaga and the relaxation.

It’s Gonzaga and what’s left.

Some of the groups that may have been ready to compete with the Zags for the 2021 NCAA championship couldn’t survive the early rounds of this 12 months’s March Madness: Iowa, Oklahoma State and particularly Illinois. Of the groups that stay, solely Baylor, Alabama and Michigan are shut to the identical class.

The event is a humorous factor, although, so it’s doable, although unlikely, that somebody aside from these three may defeat the Zags and open up the championship for everybody nonetheless concerned. Or Alabama or Michigan may pull it off after which have to fend off somebody equivalent to Baylor to full the means of profitable the championship.

This is our rating of the 16 groups that stay in the event, not on their achievement to date however on the potential to win the 4 video games which can be mandatory to declare the championship from right here. They are primarily based largely on a mix of NBA-level expertise, every crew’s event draw, offensive and defensive effectivity and the presence of a gameplan-breaking participant.

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And keep in mind, the one factor decidedly worse than being at the backside of this listing isn’t being on it in any respect.

1. Gonzaga. This is the greatest crew in school basketball. There might be no simpler assertion to make. The tougher query to reply is how far one should return into school basketball historical past to uncover its equal — or superior. Is 2018 far again sufficient, given how nice the Villanova Wildcats had been at the time? That crew had 5 NBA gamers, however 4 losses in the common season. Kentucky 2015? That crew gained 38 video games in a row however was handicapped by the split-personality enforced by the platoon system mandatory by the plentiful NBA expertise. Are they pretty much as good as Kentucky 1996?

OK, we are able to cease now, for positive. They’re not that crew. With Drew Timme inside, although, with Corey Kispert as the greatest shooter in the school sport, with Jalen Suggs and Andrew Nembhard alternating at level guard and Suggs superior on an on a regular basis foundation — and with the lot of them so distinctive that Joel Ajayi virtually blends into the background — that is an traditionally nice crew. That doesn’t imply the Zags can be champions. The arduous half comes now.

2. Baylor. It wasn’t at all times obvious whether or not the Bears had an NBA first-rounder or two, the form of participant who separates a championship contender from the group of fantastic school groups that haven’t a lot likelihood to win six video games in a row on this competitors. Guard Jared Butler has been so excellent that he now has been recognized by varied mock drafts, and level guard Davion Mitchell would possibly power his means in, too.


The Bears have turn out to be a remarkably dynamic offensive crew, and that’s a constructive evolution for a crew pursuing a championship. The axiom throughout sports activities is that “defense wins championships,” however in the NCAA Tournament, that has not been true. Of the previous 15 champions, 11 had been greater ranked on offense than protection in the KenPom.com effectivity stats. There nonetheless is a few concern relating to whether or not the Bears’ latest defensive slippage is perhaps critical sufficient to forestall them from profitable this, however the South Region bracket has cleared out sufficient that there is perhaps the alternative to keep alive and tighten it up.

3. Alabama. The Crimson Tide turned often known as a crew that shot threes at practically an unprecedented clip and transformed sufficient to undo a disappointing begin to the season. But what’s actually made them nice has been protection.

They rank No. 3 in defensive effectivity, largely due to the versatility of seniors Herbert Jones and John Petty, who’re conscious sufficient and cellular sufficient to cowl a number of positions. The Tide have additionally developed five-star recruit Jahvon Quinerly into an distinctive level guard who can carry them by way of tough moments in difficult video games. The concern is perhaps whether or not the offense is flexible sufficient and dependable sufficient to win these subsequent 4 video games.

4. Michigan. The Wolverines confirmed that they will beat a very gifted crew with out star ahead Isaiah Livers in a second-round NCAA win over LSU. But can they beat a rare crew on this state? It can be arduous to get out of the East Region with out carrying out that, however it can be not possible to win it.

The Wolverines took out LSU with reserve Chaundee Brown delivering a game-changing efficiency on each ends of the flooring. Brown is a starting-level participant who has accepted a bench function to be on a major crew.

Center Hunter Dickinson can’t present the frustration he did towards the Tigers, committing three pointless fouls earlier than settling down and finishing the sport. In the finish, although, the one issue that can matter most relative to the pursuit of the championship can be sophomore wing Franz Wagner’s willingness and availability to turn out to be a power as major perimeter possibility.

5. Florida State. It nonetheless appears like a thriller how the Seminoles blew two chances in eight days to win ACC titles, first in the common season in a sport at Notre Dame after which in the ACC Tournament title sport towards Georgia Tech. And possibly no matter bothered them in the greatest moments will affect them once more, ought to there be a chance to advance to the Elite Eight or Final Four or past.

As far as the outdoors contenders go, nonetheless, the Seminoles have all kinds of solutions and a probably game-changing expertise in Scottie Barnes. He has but to unleash the full array of his abilities. Has it been too lengthy, has FSU gone too deep into its season for him to ship the form of efficiency below duress that Suggs did in the WCC title sport towards BYU? He’s ok to do it. Is dominance a part of his software package?

6. Southern California. If you inform us that Isaiah Mobley goes to present up 4 extra occasions and hit 4-of-5 from 3-point vary, we may ship the trophy to Troy proper now. USC confirmed the very best model of itself in the first two video games of this event, and maybe it’s an indication that he and his brother at all times had been pointing to excelling on this stage and fewer involved with arriving right here in model.


The Trojans, keep in mind, misplaced to a sub-.500 Utah crew as just lately as Feb. 27, they usually not solely misplaced at Colorado prior to that, they had been run out of the gymnasium by a crew that doesn’t actually run. That’s why they fell right into a No. 6 seed when it was apparent that they had been able to higher. And now they’re displaying us.

7. Arkansas. The Razorbacks are a extra typical crew than they let on. They’ve received a quarterback-style level guard in Jalen Tate, a dynamic wing scorer in freshman Moses Moody and the participant who provides them an opportunity to proceed on this event, 6-10 Jaylin Williams. He performed 28 minutes towards Texas Tech and scored solely a degree, however who cares? He grabbed 10 rebounds and owned the lane towards the Red Raiders.

Williams made solely his third begin of the season in that sport. He might not be important to surviving Oral Roberts, however in the Elite Eight and past, Arkansas gained’t survive with out him.

MORE: March Madness odds, lines, point spreads for Sweet 16 games

8. Oregon. Unlike the Trojans, who in all probability performed themselves right into a 6, Oregon might need deserved at the very least a spot greater than their No. 7 rank. They had been the Pac-12 common season champions. But in addition they misplaced twice to Oregon State, which might not have made it with out an automated bid, and to Washington State. Did it assist them not to play a first-round sport due to VCU’s unavailability due to COVID? They had been recent sufficient to go end-to-end towards Iowa and put up 95 factors. It’s doable that they’ve found one other strategy, as a result of their solely different 90-point sport was in the Pac-12 event towards Arizona State

Chris Duarte is a pro-level offensive expertise who can carry the Ducks, however at this stage they’ll have to strive to conceal a protection that isn’t amongst the greatest.

9. Houston. Of all the groups alive in the Sweet 16, the one which needs to be feeling the most lucky is Houston, which wanted a good quantity of cooperation from Rutgers to get well from a nine-point deficit in the closing 5 minutes of their second-round sport. Now the Cougars are the highest seed remaining in the Midwest Region and one among solely seven left amongst the event’s high 16 seeds.

The relative ease of their area and that they’ve a legit game-changing participant in capturing guard Quentin Grimes lifts the Cougars greater on this listing than latest performances recommend is warranted. Sometimes, groups that aren’t performing effectively keep alive lengthy sufficient to ultimately discover one other gear. Houston goes to want one, pronto.

10. Villanova. Exactly how good the Wildcats are with out Collin Gillespie is but to be established. They’re ok to have survived two rounds of the event, which many others who had comparable common seasons couldn’t, however the groups they defeated had been high-quality mid-majors. Could they’ve conquered Purdue of their current situation?

The reply isn’t of their Big East performances towards Providence and Georgetown, as a result of these video games had been performed instantly after Gillespie’s damage, with minimal time to reorganize and with possible substitute Justin Moore banged up, as effectively. It’s been three weeks now. That’s loads of time for Jay Wright to discover a solution. Moore performed 34 minutes towards UNT, and Bryan Antoine, whose first two seasons have been impacted by a shoulder drawback, has carried out effectively in an expanded function.


11. Loyola. The Ramblers usually are not the Eleventh-best crew nonetheless taking part in. They’re in all probability nearer to the high 5. They have what now stands as the nation’s simplest protection, ranked No. 1 in effectivity forward of groups with better reputations for holding down opponents. They have two regulars with Final Four expertise, which isn’t widespread amongst this 12 months’s Sweet 16. The photographs they generate from their offense, particularly inside the 3-point line are transformed at a better price than virtually any Division I crew’s.

Unless this event is completely completely different than each different one over the previous 60 years — verify that, we already know it’s completely different, however in the sense of the aggressive outcomes — sooner or later having elite expertise goes to be required. Cameron Krutwig is an elite school participant. But he’s the solely Ramblers participant averaging double-figure scoring, and even at that isn’t the indefensible, first-round-pick expertise that inevitably is required to win the greatest video games.

12. UCLA. What we’ve seen from this Bruins squad makes the disappointment of shedding star Chris Smith to ACL surgical procedure and reserve large man Jalen Hill to private causes extra profound. As a whole unit, the Bruins would have been extra possible to end as Pac-12 champions and never be required to play three NCAA Tournament video games simply to attain this stage.

Smith was additionally the closest factor the Bruins had to that difference-making particular person expertise, though sophomore switch Johnny Juzang is creating into the sort of participant who not solely can create his personal shot, but additionally make it. He is capturing .509 from the discipline and .391 on 3-pointers in the event.

The factor that makes it harder to rank the Bruins greater is the draw, having to defeat Alabama after which both Michigan or Florida State simply to attain the Final Four.

13. Syracuse. The Orange have turn out to be an annual March miracle, like the blossoming of the timber outdoors my window. They have an 8-2 report over three tournaments as a double-digit seed since 2016, and standing in a 2-3 matchup zone with Houston, Loyola and Oregon State suggests one other Final Four could be very a lot a risk.

That Jim Boeheim has been in 20 Sweet 16s in his profession is spectacular. That he has been in three in the previous 5 tournaments is astonishing, as a result of the Orange started as a No. 10 seed as soon as and a No. 11 the different two occasions, together with this season. They’ve taken out such coaches as Mark Few, Tony Bennett, Tom Izzo and Bob Huggins. And, this time, they’ve achieved it with possibly much less pure expertise than in any earlier season. What is it that they at all times say about Bill Self? Right: This is perhaps Boeheim’s greatest teaching job.

14. Creighton. Based strictly on means and efficiency, the Blue Jays simply would rank greater on this listing. If they had been in the Midwest area, they is perhaps the favourite to emerge to the Final Four. Unfortunately for Creighton, it is scheduled as Gonzaga’s subsequent sufferer. This isn’t to say development is not possible, however it would have to be a rare capturing day for a rare capturing crew. Creighton’s dimension limitations on the inside will make it tough to deal with Gonzaga’s surging Drew Timme.

15. Oregon State. The Beavers have demonstrated the capability to defeat high-end high-major competitors in the previous two weeks, knocking off UCLA, Oregon, Colorado, Tennessee and Oklahoma State in succession. It’s a heck of a run that earned them a visit to the NCAAs after which one other to the Sweet 16. You know what number of NCAA Tournament groups they defeated earlier than that? Two. You know what number of non-tournament groups beat them? Seven. So, please, spare us the revisionism.

Oregon State earned its place on this spherical the arduous means; every of the previous 5 video games has been both a ticket residence or to the subsequent spherical. Very few groups alive on this event have coped with that diploma of strain. And but the Beavers have shot the ball as comfortably as a bunch of gamers warming up for a playground run. They’ve made 45-of-107 from 3-point vary in these 5 elimination video games, a .420 proportion that appears somewhat out of character for a crew that ended the common season at .337. Yes, please, inform us the way you noticed this coming.


16. Oral Roberts. This crew simply barely prevented the 16 seed line after ending fourth in the Summit League and shedding alongside the means to 9-17 North Dakota, 7-13 UMKC — oh, and 24-6 Arkansas, subsequent in line as the Golden Eagles transfer into the South Region semifinals. They have a particularly succesful offense that generates 82 factors per sport, however neither Ohio State nor Florida took benefit of a pliable protection that was hit for a mean of 85 factors by the 5 main opponents Oral Roberts performed in non-conference.

Arkansas, which was a kind of groups, received 87 the final time round. However many the Razorbacks ring up this time, it can be sufficient to advance.

But Oral Roberts followers by no means will neglect making it this far.



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