It’s Major week, and the extremely anticipated PGA Championship is lastly right here! This week, we shift our sights onto the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island the place the monitor measures at 7,876 yards for a par 72. This means will probably be the longest course in main championship historical past, because it was in 2012. Speaking of 2012, that is the final time we had been again right here when Rory McIlroy destroyed the competitors. Because of that displaying by Rory and his latest win on the Wells Fargo Championship, he comes into this occasion because the betting favourite at +1100. Defending champion Collin Morikawa’s betting odds are listed at +2800.
Looking on the course, the placing grass that’s going to be used known as paspalum, which is well-liked on European tracks. The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island lives up to its title with, you guessed it, quite a lot of water. Even although it is situated in South Carolina, the Ocean Course performs related to a European-style hyperlinks course. When it comes to the climate, it is supposed to be gusty this week, in order that will likely be one thing to keep watch over. All of this stuff put collectively ought to bode nicely for the European golfers who’re used to enjoying on these programs and in these situations. Either method, buckle up, as a result of water and wind ought to make for loads of drama come Sunday.
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With all of this in thoughts, this week I’m concentrating on guys with good “Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee,” “Driving Distance,” “Strokes Gained: Approach,” and “Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green” metrics.
Wagering on golf all the time appears to come down to the wire, which is why I’ve grow to be hooked. When it comes to my betting picks this week, you will not discover something too groundbreaking right here. Aside from digging into the information on the RickRunGood.com database and a few different fashions, I strive to search for guys which have had previous success on the explicit course, worth performs, and gamers which might be trending in the correct course coming into an occasion.
Overall, the sphere is completely stacked, so this will likely be enjoyable to watch, particularly come Sunday. Let’s dig in and discover some winners!
PGA Championship picks, predictions 2021
*Odds through DraftKings Sportsbook
Best bets to win outright
Dustin Johnson +1800
I do know DJ withdrew from the AT&T Byron Nelson final Monday and hasn’t been sharp just lately, however I am unable to resist betting him at these odds, particularly in his residence state. This scenario jogs my memory a little bit of everybody being off of Rory McIlroy earlier than he took down the Wells Fargo.
The No. 1 golfer ranks first in “Strokes Gained: Total” over his previous 50 rounds on Dye programs. He additionally ranks ninth in “Driving Distance” and within the high 30 of a number of different key metrics. If there’s any golfer on the earth who can flip the swap and dominate, it is Johnson.
He’s all the time been in competition on the PGA Championship occasions and performs nicely at Dye programs, so I could not lay off of him.
Viktor Hovland +1800
I’m not going out on a limb right here with Hovland, as I’m positive he will likely be on many individuals’s playing cards this week. Justly so, as he is enjoying terrific golf, ending third in every of his previous two occasions. He additionally has two Tour victories (Puerto Rico Open & Mayakoba Classic) on paspalum.
Metrics sensible, Hovland pops off the charts, rating fourth in each “Strokes Gained: Total” and “Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee,” sixth in “Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green,” and twenty third in “SG: Approach” this season.
Shop round as a result of I used to be nonetheless seeing some +2000’s on the market.
Best sleeper/long-shot picks
In this part, I’m searching for guys which have 25-1 or longer odds. If any of them are within the operating come Sunday, I’ll dwell wager and hedge for a little bit pizza cash to be sure that I come out on high.
Collin Morikawa +2800
I do know it is going to be robust for Morikawa to win this occasion in back-to-back years, however I am unable to resist. He goes as his putter goes, however his irons and method recreation will preserve him in competition right here. At least that is how I see it enjoying out.
PGA Splits 101 (nice Twitter observe) used true “Strokes Gained” information from Data Golf, adjusted for discipline energy, and noticed that Morikawa is the best ball-striker on the PGA Championship over the previous 20 rounds.
He’s additionally first in “Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green,” second in “Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green,” and twenty second in “Strokes Gained: Total.” At these odds, I had to throw some cash down on him.
Daniel Berger +2800
Most individuals do not realize how good Berger has been just lately and over the previous yr. He’s completed within the high 20 in 4 out of his previous 5 begins and is fifth in “Strokes Gained: Total” over his previous 24 rounds. He’s additionally coming into this occasion off of a third-place end on the Byron Nelson, so you recognize he is in nice kind.
I fear this course is perhaps a little bit too lengthy for him, however he is too good to depart off the cardboard.
Tyrrell Hatton +5000
I went backwards and forwards right here with fellow Englishman Paul Casey, however I settled on Hatton for just a few causes. Out of his 10 skilled wins, six have come on the European Tour on links-style programs. His solely win in 2021 was on the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship that featured paspalum. He’s additionally proven that he can play with the massive boys and has three different top-25 finishes in 2021, together with ending 18th at The Masters.
Hatton ranks ninth in “Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green” and twentieth in “Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.” Lastly, the RickRunGood Tournament Predictor additionally loves him at these odds and has him listed because the No. 1 worth play within the occasion.
Tommy Fleetwood +6600
Other than being ranked seventh in “Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green,” his metrics do not pop off the charts. Of course, that is why we’re getting him at 66-1. His kind in 2021 has additionally been inconsistent, however he completed tenth on the Arnold Palmer and 14th at Wells Fargo, so he has it in him to be in competition.
The largest cause I’m sprinkling on Fleetwood this week is his success on coastal- and links-style programs. In 2020, he completed second on the Scottish Open and in 2019, he completed second on the Open Championship. In 2018, he completed second at each the Open Championship and on the U.S. Open.
He’s used to a lot of these programs and situations, so if the wind causes havoc this weekend, he would possibly have the ability to make the leap.