NFL picks, predictions against spread Week 5: Chiefs outgun Bills; Seahawks, Packers, Cowboys stay hot

Week 4 was extra like for our NFL picks and predictions against the spread. It nonetheless wasn’t smashing, however getting properly above .500 is a win for any week.

There’s extra information and knowledge factors obtainable for all 32 groups as a lot of them forge their true identities for the 2021 season. Some, nevertheless, nonetheless stay tough to learn due to accidents and different variables.

The solely factor we are able to do is attempt to use all the things extra to our benefit to make higher sport decisions against the quantity because the motion progresses. Here’s hoping Week 5 will give us the specified outcomes once more from the method:

(Game odds courtesy of FanDuel)

Cardinals fly to top; Packers, Cowboys, Seahawks flex; Titans fall

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NFL picks against the spread for Week 5

  • Game of the Week: Bills at Chiefs (-3, 56.5 o/u)

Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

The Bills’ protection has seemed nice this season nevertheless it hasn’t confronted a quarterback of Patrick Mahomes’ caliber, house or away. The Chiefs have discovered a balanced offense and the large move performs are flowing once more to Tyreek Hill as groups proceed to select their poison between him and Travis Kelce. Mahomes did not like being below .500 and does not wish to be there once more. The Bills’ offense additionally will trigger loads of issues for the Chiefs’ protection with Josh Allen enjoying properly and spreading the ball round. Mahomes will not be having a second consecutive loss at house whereas Buffalo is due for a little bit of a highway cooldown in prime time.

Pick: Chiefs win 34-27 and canopy the spread.

  • Game of Midweek: Rams (-1.5, 54.5 o/u) at Seahawks

Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox and NFL Network

The Rams’ protection sprung some main leaks against the flexibility and multiplicity of the Cardinals’ offense. They will get a lot of the identical round Russell Wilson with bonus insider information of the scheme from his offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, a Sean McVay protege. The Matthew Stafford hype prepare acquired slightly derailed final week whereas Wilson’s is at all times chugging like a locomotive. The Rams can comprise D.Okay. Metcalf with Jalen Ramsey however the Seahawks will get large performs elsewhere as in addition they run properly. The Rams can exploit the Seahawks’ protection in lots of locations too. This seems to be like a ultimate possession sport within the fourth quarter, so aspect with Wilson at house to be the hero.

Pick: Seahawks win 31-27.

  • Rivalry of the Week: Giants at Cowboys (-7.5, 50.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

The Giants’ offense is determining extra issues with Daniel Jones, simply as former Cowboys coach Jason Garrett was getting on the hot seat as offensive coordinator. Jones is doing his greatest to show he is a keeper by exhibiting he is a lot improved with higher ability assist. Dak Prescott, nevertheless, is within the whole zone and Ezeklel Elliott has gone again to being a dashing beast at house. Jones will get extra assist from Saquon Barkley and his wideout so New York hangs round, however Dallas will preserve flexing because the clear NFC East favourite.

Pick: Cowboys win 31-24 however fail to cowl the spread.

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  • Lock of the Week: Titans (-4.5, 48.5 o/u) at Jaguars

Sunday 1 p.m. ET,  CBS

The Titans didn’t play properly against the Jets with Derrick Henry being their solely supply of offense, which additional uncovered all their move protection points. After the large highway upset in New York, Tennessee will not let that occur once more in Jacksonville. Mike Vrabel will get his group again on observe whereas Urban Meyer, coping with some bother private developments, will wrestle to encourage his group the identical approach. Take benefit of the low early quantity because the Titans are sure to rebound and the Jaguars can be nonetheless hungover from blowing a giant lead in Week 4.

Pick: Titans win 27-21 and canopy the spread. 

  • Upset of the Week: Eagles (+3.5, 45 o/u) over Panthers

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Eagles needs to be higher than 1-3. The Panthers are a bit inflated at 3-1. Jalen Hurts has been enjoying properly in passing downfield and operating for chunks when wanted, however he wants to chop down on errors and will use extra assist from the standard dashing assault, given Carolina’s protection is most susceptible there. The Cowboys’ tight ends brought on issues for the Panthers and the Eagles can do the identical with Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz. It comes all the way down to which stout defensive entrance will management the motion vs. two weakened offensive strains. Although Sam Darnold has been a machine dashing for TDs, Hurts’ elusiveness provides Philadelphia the sting to flee with victory.

Pick: Eagles win 23-20.

  • Jets at Falcons (-3.5, 43.5 o/u) in London

Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network

Robert Saleh and Arthur Smith are each on the board with victories as promising rookie coaches. Saleh’s defensive affect is being felt on the Jets, whereas Smith is beginning to determine methods to get the perfect out of Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ distinctive offensive weapons, together with Cordarrelle Patterson. Rookie Zach Wilson can stay hot in Tottenham against one other weak move protection, however this is also an opportunity for Atlanta to do properly with Smith’s most well-liked operating throughout the pond.

Pick: Falcons win 27-20 and canopy the spread.

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  • Dolphins at Buccaneers (-10.5, 47.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Dolphins are exhibiting a special form of offense with Jacoby Brissett and the passing sport has all of the sudden been competent because the operating sport has light. Still, their group of huge receivers and tight finish Mike Gesicki can do solely a lot on the opposite aspect of Brady. Brian Flores can scheme his move protection properly a la Bill Belichick, however for a second straight week, the Bucs will lean properly on Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones and the operating sport with extra large sacks and takeaways from the protection.

Pick: Buccaneers win 30-13 and canopy the spread.

  • Saints (-1.5, 43.5 o/u) at Washington

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Washington’s protection has been a serious disappointment all-around however will get a break right here against a group with a restricted and inconsistent offense round Alvin Kamara. New Orleans will proceed to toggle Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill at quarterback based mostly on state of affairs. The Saints’ protection will be exploited a lot with Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin and a constructive sport script is required to rev up a dormant WFT move rush. Taylor Heinicke turns in one other profitable efficiency at house to push his group above .500 whereas the Saints drop under that even mark.

Pick: Washington wins 23-20.

  • Lions at Vikings (-7.5, 49.5 o/u) 

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Lions have been doing their greatest to play exhausting and get a win however their protection retains going additional within the tank and now the accidents are beginning to pile up, too. The Vikings prefer to assault unhealthy groups with Kirk Cousins and are due for one more domination with its protection enjoying extra the way in which Mike Zimmer likes. Jared Goff is in for one more tough afternoon with restricted receivers vs. Cousins, who will get to do no matter he needs with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

Pick: Vikings win 34-17 and canopy the spread.

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  • Broncos at Steelers (-1.5, 40.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Steelers desperately want a win at 1-3 and sadly it takes a group with a worse QB state of affairs than theirs with Ben Roethlisberger. Enter the Broncos, who would possibly want to start out Drew Lock over a concussed Teddy Bridgewater against a difficult move protection in a possible one-dimensional assault. Pittsburgh has to win video games with D and grinding floor sport with rookie Najee Harris and this battle of attrition is simply what it wants at house.

Pick: Steelers win 17-14 and canopy the spread.

  • Packers (-3.5, 49.5 o/u) at Bengals

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Packers know they may have their palms full with one other 3-1 group from the opposite North. Their move rush is likely to be down two Smiths and shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder) can be a giant absence against Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. They might want to win this with Aaron Rodgers outdueling Joe Burrow vs. the Bengals’ cornerbacks. Rodgers will get slightly extra from his fellow Aaron (Jones) operating than Burrow will get from his fellow Joe (Mixon) to win on the highway.

Pick: Packers win 27-24 however fail to cowl the spread.

  • Patriots (-9.5, 39.5 o/u) at Texans

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Following the revenge sport against Brady, Belichick will get to arrange his move protection for one more rookie quarterback, Davis Mills. After some pregame pleasantries together with his former personnel colleague Nick Caserio, the coach will make it tough on the struggling Mills whereas additionally containing his go-to man, former Patriots receiver Brandin Cooks. New England’s personal assured rookie QB, Mac Jones, turns in one other sturdy efficiency and this time is rewarded with a definitive victory.

Pick: Patriots win 24-7 and canopy the spread.

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  • Bears at Raiders (-5.5, 45.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

The Bears are an offensive work in progress and are enjoying video games with their beginning quarterback choice. Their protection has been nice making performs at instances and leaky at different instances. Chicago has basic inconsistency at 2-2 however have a number of ability gamers to trigger Las Vegas issues, particularly if David Montgomery (knee) does not have to miss time. The Raiders have performed properly at house with Derek Carr and may overachieve to the required stage on protection.

Pick: Raiders win 23-19 however fail to cowl the spread.

  • Browns (-1, 49.5 o/u) at Chargers

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

The Browns have one large benefit on this matchup: Their run blocking and their pair of particular backs, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. They are constructed to assault the Chargers’ weaknesses properly and might keep away from their strengths. The Dawg Pound additionally could have touring crowd for backup. Justin Herbert will reply with some large performs together with his high wideouts, however Cleveland’s protection makes a key play to protect one other gritty victory late.

Pick: Browns win 24-22 and canopy the spread.

  • 49ers at Cardinals (-4.5, 52.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

The 49ers can be rolling out Trey Lance full-time with Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) injured once more.The rookie first-rounder was slightly shaky with prolonged time against the Seahawks however ought to settle higher into his twin risk function for Kyle Shanahan’s offense. There’s nothing fallacious with a locked-in Kyler Murray in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. He’s the MVP front-runner of a blooming powerhouse. The 49ers have sufficient defensive holes to suppose he’ll outlast some dazzle from Lance.

Pick: Cardinals win 31-27 however fail to cowl the spread.

  • Colts at Ravens (-7, 48 o/u)

Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Ravens are discovering their groove on offense as they’re turning into much less depending on the operating sport round Lamar Jackson and turning into extra aggressive in getting everybody concerned within the passing sport. The Colts are going again to their run-heavy sport plan that includes Jonathan Taylor with Carson Wentz making clutch throws. Baltimore’s general protection, execution and effectivity is healthier and there is at all times further fan emotion in prime time when it performs the group from Indy that used to name Charm City house.

Pick: Ravens win 30-20 and canopy the spread.

Vinnie Iyer’s 2021 picks:

  • Week 4 file against the spread: 10-5
  • Week 4 file straight up: 12-3
  • Season ATS: 31-32
  • Season straight up: 41-22

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