Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season as soon as once more belonged to the underdogs. Underdogs went 9-7 towards the unfold for the second consecutive week to enhance their document on the 12 months to 30-18, a canopy share of 62.5.
That stated, because the 12 months goes on, that development will seemingly even out and stay round .500. Bettors and bookmakers are studying far more about every staff and as they acquire extra information, it turns into simpler to seek out undervalued traces and make sleeper picks towards the unfold.
Three video games is a reasonably stable pattern dimension by which to find out traits. Savvy bettors put plenty of work making an attempt to separate the nice and unhealthy groups from the fortunate and unfortunate. Some groups look good however have performed a weak schedule. Others look unhealthy however have misplaced a number of one-possession video games late. Knowing the completely different between good and fortunate could make an enormous distinction when making weekly alternatives towards the unfold.
Injury luck has additionally shifted the betting panorama. There have been loads of groups which have misplaced quarterbacks, together with Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins), Andy Dalton (Bears) and Tyrod Taylor (Texans). Other groups, just like the Colts and Eagles, are coping with key accidents to non-quarterbacks. That is making it tougher for them to play at a excessive stage.
All of this information is beneficial to bettors. It can clarify why traces are shifting and why some groups are failing to reside as much as expectations. Knowing the most recent traits, odds and damage information is important, so be sure you take note of the whole lot as Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season begins.
NFL odds for Week 4
Below are the most recent Week 4 NFL odds, together with point spreads, cash traces and over-under totals for every game, in keeping with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Last up to date: Wednesday, Sept. 29
NFL point spreads Week 4
|Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals||CIN -7.5|
|Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons||WAS -1.5|
|Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears||CHI -3|
|Tennessee Titans at New York Jets||TEN -7.5|
|Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings||CLE -2.5|
|Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins||MIA -1.5|
|Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys||DAL -4.5|
|New York Giants at New Orleans Saints||NO -7.5|
|Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles||KC -7.5|
|Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills||BUF -16.5|
|Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams||LAR -4.5|
|Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers||SF -3|
|Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos||DEN -1|
|Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers||GB -7|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots||TB -7|
|Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers||LAC -3.5|
NFL cash traces Week 4
|Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals||CIN -330|
|Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons||WAS -118|
|Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears||CHI -152|
|Tennessee Titans at New York Jets||TEN -360|
|Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings||CLE -130|
|Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins||MIA -132|
|Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys||DAL -230|
|New York Giants at New Orleans Saints||NO -360|
|Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles||KC -335|
|Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills||BUF -1200|
|Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams||LAR -210|
|Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers||SF -156|
|Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos||DEN -116|
|Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers||GB -295|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots||TB -290|
|Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers||LAC -184|
NFL over-unders Week 4
|Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals||46.5|
|Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons||48.5|
|Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears||42.5|
|Tennessee Titans at New York Jets||46|
|Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings||53.5|
|Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins||43.5|
|Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys||50.5|
|New York Giants at New Orleans Saints||43.5|
|Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles||54.5|
|Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills||48|
|Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams||54.5|
|Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers||52.5|
|Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos||44.5|
|Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers||45.5|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots||49.5|
|Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers||52.5|
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Rams on the rise after win over Bucs
NFL greatest bets for Week 4
Rams (-4.5) vs. Cardinals
The Rams have confirmed to be probably the greatest NFL groups to date in 2021, they usually have a superb probability to stay because the final unbeaten standing within the not-so-distant future. Their Week 4 matchup with the Cardinals might look powerful on paper, however latest historical past favors the Rams on this one.
Los Angeles has by no means misplaced to Arizona throughout Sean McVay’s time because the coach of the Rams. He holds an 8-0 document towards Arizona and the Rams have received these video games by a mean of 20 factors. Only one of many video games was determined by fewer than 10 factors.
It’s price noting that Kyler Murray was solely the Cardinals’ beginning quarterback in 4 of these video games, however his numbers have nonetheless been poor towards the Rams protection. He has logged a completion share of 58.7 towards the Rams and has generated six whole touchdowns in comparison with seven turnovers.
Brandon Staley could also be gone, however Raheem Morris has confirmed adept at getting his protection to carry out in key spots. He ought to discover a solution to maintain Murray off-balance. Murray has thrown 4 interceptions via three video games this season, so he’s liable to make some errors towards the Rams’ robust secondary.
After all, we noticed what the Rams did to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers final week. The protection restricted Tampa Bay to 17 factors earlier than the Bucs made issues respectable with a garbage-time landing within the Rams’ 34-24 win.
On the opposite facet of the ball, the Rams’ offense is averaging 304.3 passing yards per game, good for the sixth-most within the NFL. The Cardinals have been stable towards the move this 12 months, however they might have bother slowing down the Rams’ arsenal of weapons. They merely do not have the cornerback depth wanted to cowl the likes of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Van Jefferson and a seemingly rejuvenated DeSean Jackson.
The Rams can win this one by a landing; given their historical past, they need to. You can belief them as favorites this week regardless that they’re dealing with one other undefeated staff.
Chiefs (-7.5) at Eagles
The Chiefs have not been reliable towards the unfold of late. In truth, because the starting of the 2020 season, they’re simply 8-14 they usually’re 0-3 ATS this 12 months. They additionally have the second-lowest cowl share within the NFL (36.4) in that span. Only the Jets (31.6) are worse.
That stated, Kansas City needs to be hyper-motivated to win their Week 4 contest. They’re sitting at 1-2 on the season and are in final place within the AFC West. They’re assured to stay there for one other week, however they’ve to begin fascinated by catching the Raiders and Broncos, who’re each 3-0.
The Eagles will give the Chiefs a superb probability to win. Philadelphia simply struggled immensely to cease the Cowboys’ offense. The Cowboys run the ball higher than the Chiefs, however Clyde Edwards-Helaire ought to have the ability to benefit from the Eagles’ Twenty sixth-ranked run protection that enables 133.7 speeding yards per game.
Oh yeah, the Chiefs even have Patrick Mahomes, too. Mahomes has misplaced back-to-back video games simply twice in his profession. What has he carried out after these two-game dropping streaks? He has helped the Chiefs win by a mean of 28 factors per game. That features a 32-point win over the Raiders in 2018 and a 24-point win over the Broncos in 2019.
The Eagles might be able to run the ball a bit on the Chiefs, who struggled towards Lamar Jackson earlier within the season and have the NFL’s second-worst run protection, however will they have the ability to do sufficient if Mahomes and the Chiefs shred the Eagles’ protection like Dallas did? The Cowboys simply scored 41 factors on them, so the Chiefs might do the identical.
At the top of the day, this looks as if a superb bounce-back spot for the Chiefs. We’re keen to belief them after fading them against the Chargers final week.
Texans (+16.5) at Bills
I do know what you are pondering. The Texans are usually not a superb staff and they’ll be beginning Davis Mills in simply his second profession NFL game. The Bills have received their final two video games by 22 and 35 factors respectively.
So, why do you have to choose the Texans? It all has to do with historical past and motivation.
Since 2003, groups which can be 14-point underdogs or greater have posted a document of 70-61-4 towards the unfold, per TeamRankings.com. That means the favourite has coated 45.1 p.c of the time whereas the underdog has coated 51.9 p.c of the time. That’s a stable benefit for the underdog.
What can we take away from this? It’s merely troublesome for a favourite to cowl a ramification of two touchdowns or extra. As such, it is often higher to go together with the underdog, as all it’d take is one garbage-time landing or fluky turnover from the favourite to earn a canopy.
The Bills are also a superb staff to fade right here contemplating their upcoming schedule. They are taking part in the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 5, so they might be wanting forward a bit to that AFC Championship Game rematch. If they barely overlook the Texans, that would give Houston an opportunity to remain within the game longer and stop the Bills from pulling away outright.
The Texans even have a relaxation benefit having final performed on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 3. So, they’re going to be a bit more energizing than the Bills.
Buffalo will nearly actually win this game. The -1200 moneyline implies that they’ve a 92.3 p.c probability to try this. But do not be shocked if the Texans maintain it from getting out of hand and canopy this 16.5-point unfold.