What are you aware, we had one other wild week within the NFL (and daily fantasy football)! Kansas City and Tampa Bay every misplaced, Denver and Carolina continued their undefeated begins, and Jason Tucker prolonged the report for longest discipline aim of all time to 66 yards. We’re two sentences in, and I’m already sweating! Let’s maintain the insanity going and bounce into Week 4 of our DFS values and sleeper picks!
If you’re a fan of DFS, otherwise you similar to to search out an edge or angle with all of your football-related bets, this column might be up your alley all season. Each week, I scour the participant swimming pools on DraftKings and FanDuel, and compile an inventory of sleepers and/or value picks that will help you win some chilly, exhausting money. The extra value players you add, the more cash you should have left for confirmed weekly studs at different roster spots.
If you learn this column forward of Week 3, you’d have benefited from our recommendation to plug a plethora of low-cost, high-value players into your DFS lineups. Here’s a brief record of a few of our hits from final week, together with every participant’s DraftKings price and ultimate PPR output:
- Daniel Jones ($5,800): 16.54 fantasy factors
- Chase Edmonds ($5,700): 14.5
- Mike Davis ($5,200): 11
- Cardinals D/ST ($3,000): 17
If you drafted any of those cost-efficient choices final week, you’d have benefited from good, low-cost manufacturing and afforded your self an additional stud or two elsewhere. Getting probably the most bang for your buck has all the time been the secret in DFS, so it’s necessary to do your due diligence earlier than setting up lineups. Leave the deep-diving to us — we’re right here for you from the primary kickoff via the final play of the 2021 NFL season.
Without additional ado, let’s bounce proper into Week 4!
All participant values are from DraftKings and FanDuel. All stats are from NFL.com and Pro Football Reference.
- NFL DFS Picks Week 4: QB sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
- NFL DFS Picks Week 4: RB sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
- NFL DFS Picks Week 4: WR sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
- NFL DFS Picks Week 4: TE sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
- NFL DFS Picks Week 4: D/ST sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
NFL DFS Picks Week 4: QB sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Steelers (DK: $6,800 | FD: $7,600)
Of course, Rodgers won’t ever be thought-about a “sleeper” for the remainder of his life, however he actually seems to be like a value at $6,800. The Steelers haven’t regarded proper from prime to backside this season — Big Ben is over the hill, prime receiver Diontae Johnson (knee) is damage, and rookie Najee Harris has an excessive amount of on his plate. The greatest concern for Steelers Nation? Their protection has been horrible. A-Rod has been torching opponents in prime time within the two weeks since his abominable season-opener in opposition to the Saints. Look out beneath, Pittsburgh followers, you’re about to get Lambeaued by the fifth-best QB of all time. At QB, I’d reasonably spend $6,800 on assured manufacturing within the 20s than throw up a prayer for double-digits at $5,500.
Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos vs. Ravens (DK worth: $5,700 | FD: $6,800)
Bridgewater has turn into a favourite of this column, as he stays environment friendly and has Denver enjoying impressed (and undefeated) football. Now, he didn’t discover anybody in the long run zone within the Broncos’ win over the Jets final week, however that’s largely as a result of sport script didn’t name for it. The Jets waved the white flag early in Mile High, and Denver’s operating again tandem ran to their hearts’ content material. (Seriously, I don’t know the place these friggin’ idioms come from). Well, Teddy B added 235 yards to his banner 12 months, and he’s nonetheless but to throw an interception (knock on wooden in the event you’re with me). Game script ought to dictate a little bit of an air present in opposition to Baltimore, which can pack a a lot larger punch than any of Denver’s first three opponents this season. I don’t assume Bridgewater could have a highlight-reel day, however I do assume he places up 18-plus factors. At $5,700, that’s a ground you need to be prepared to simply accept.
Matt Ryan, Falcons vs. WFT (DK: $5,000 | FD: $6,700)
If not now, then when? Matty Ice attracts a Washington protection that has been extraordinarily underwhelming following its 2020 run because the fourth-best scoring protection. Buffalo QB Josh Allen had a get-right sport in opposition to WFT final week, throwing for 358 yards and 4 touchdowns. Now, it’s Ryan’s time to shine. Ron Rivera’s squad is reeling, much more so than the 1-2 Falcons. Ryan hasn’t even been that dangerous — the 2016 MVP has exceeded 75-percent completion charges his previous two video games, has a 300-yard outing and two multi-TD video games, and his QB ranking was 111.2 in Atlanta’s win over a feisty Giants protection final week. Pile onto DC’s distress, Matty.
NFL DFS Picks Week 4: RB sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor, Colts at Dolphins (DK: $6,300 | FD: $6,600)
Here’s one other man who doesn’t qualify as a sleeper, however he completely qualifies as a value. JT has not precisely introduced horny again this season, as he’s failed to succeed in 65 yards dashing in a sport, and he’s but to interrupt the aircraft on the bottom or via the air. His QB, Carson Wentz, has been coping with two bum ankles and an o-line that seemingly endures extra accidents every week. For these causes, the second-year again’s weekly price on DraftKings has dropped from $8K to $7,200 to $6,700 and now $6,300. There are loads of causes for optimism in the event you’re a Taylor truther, although, and there’s loads of upside at these costs. For starters, I traded him away in my essential fantasy league, so he’s a lock to blow up virtually instantly. Also, Miami has struggled to include the run, rating twenty seventh in opposition to backs in PPR codecs. Lastly, I count on a bunch of dump-offs, attracts, and screens this week. With Wentz not at one hundred pc and offensive sort out Quenton Nelson assuredly out with an ankle harm of his personal, what else does Indy have? Second-year receiver Michael Pittman is nice, however Wentz missed him extensive open a number of instances final week. T.Y. Hilton is probably going nonetheless out with a neck harm. I’m not frightened about Nyheim Hynes — Taylor’s the person, and he would possibly simply go off this week.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team at Falcons (DK: $6,100 | FD: $7,100)
Here’s one other one in every of my “ride-or-die” guys. Gibson has large expertise and a ceiling sufficiently big to include the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree, however WFT’s roster has crumbled round him since QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s unlucky Week 1 hip harm. But the present should go on for the second-year again, and his explosiveness makes him nicely price a $6,100 funding in opposition to a perennial dumpster fireplace of a protection like Atlanta. Gibson bought bottled up on the bottom in opposition to a motivated Bills squad final week, however he took a display screen go 73 yards to the home to make up for it. Gibson continues to enhance as an NFL runner — he’s nonetheless only some years faraway from enjoying extensive receiver — and he’s a buy-low man in nearly each format possible. (I’d most likely commerce my mother-in-law’s Prius for him in my dynasty league. It could be well worth the stress.)
Zack Moss, Bills vs. Texans (DK: $5,300 | FD: $6,000)
Just like final 12 months, Bills head coach Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll appear to be realizing that Moss is a greater operating again than Devin Singletary. Luckily for DFS individuals, Buffalo’s shift in backfield workloads final week has not coincided with a serious hike in Moss’s prices. The second-year again rushed 13 instances for 60 yards in opposition to WFT, and he caught all three of his targets for 31 yards and a landing. Now he will get to assist beat up on the lowly Texans, who’ve allowed eight dashing scores in three video games (second most within the NFL) and 273 yards on the bottom over the previous two weeks. Gather that Moss.
NFL DFS Picks Week 4: WR sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Courtland Sutton, Broncos (DK: $5,700 | FD: $6,300) and Marquise Brown, Ravens (DK: $5,400 | FD: $6,400)
I doubled up right here, because the Broncos host the Ravens in what needs to be a high-scoring affair. Sutton had an explosive Week 2 (catching 9-of-12 targets for 159 yards), however sport script introduced him again to Earth in Denver’s Week 3 laugher at dwelling over the Jets. Well, the Ravens carry rather more offensive competitors into city, however their secondary has extra holes than common. Baltimore ranks twenty sixth in factors allowed and, unbelievably, thirtieth in passing yards surrendered. With Sutton enjoying so effectively (75-percent catch price) and garnering 20-25 p.c of Teddy B’s targets, he’s an excellent begin in a sport projected at 45 complete factors.
On the opposite aspect, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown stays the highest downfield menace for the Ravens. Denver’s D has been surprisingly good this season, however it hasn’t confronted anyone with the pace or playmaking potential of Hollywood. Through three weeks, Brown has 15 catches on 23 targets, 235 yards, and two scores. He has averaged 15.7 yards per catch and 78.3 receiving yards per sport, and he sees the sector for almost 70 p.c of Baltimore’s offensive snaps. Big issues might be poppin’ for these two younger receivers Sunday.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers vs. Seahawks (DK: $5,000 | FD: $5,700)
Don’t look now, however Aiyuk is again. Side be aware: why do we are saying “don’t look now” once we need somebody’s consideration? Shouldn’t or not it’s “look out now,” as a substitute? I’m going with that any longer. Look out now, readers, Aiyuk is again! After lulling his fantasy house owners to sleep in Weeks 1 and a couple of with one catch on two complete targets and an offensive snap proportion only a hair over 50 p.c, Aiyuk got here alive on Sunday Night Football in opposition to Green Bay. The second-year wideout had 4 catches on six targets for 37 yards and a TD, and most necessary, he noticed the sector for 86 p.c of San Francisco’s offensive performs. I knew Aiyuk would explode onto the scene this weekend after I traded him away in two totally different fantasy leagues. Reverse jinxer, for the win! The Seahawks stay one of many extra beneficiant defenses to extensive receivers in fantasy.
A.J. Green, Cardinals at Jaguars (DK: $4,500 | FD: $5,600)
Quick, everybody, seize Green earlier than DraftKings and FanDuel notice he’s good once more! Early-season MVP candidate Kyler Murray regarded Green’s manner six instances over the weekend, and the seven-time Pro Bowler pulled in 5 catches for 112 yards. With DeAndre Hopkins (ribs) banged up and rookie Rondale Moore extra of an occasional dwelling run hitter, Green ought to proceed to see a stead workload. With Hopkins seemingly drawing protection from Jalen Ramsey — and the books itemizing the over/below for this one at 54.5 (with an implied complete of 24 factors for Arizona) — Green at $4,500 looks like a no brainer.
NFL DFS Picks Week 4: TE sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team at Falcons (DK: $4,900 | FD: $5,800)
I’m bullish on my favourite tight ends like I’m bullish on my favourite penny shares. This is the week, fellow Tom-boys! Not a lot has gone WFT’s manner this season, however at the least Taylor Heinicke appears to be growing chemistry with Thomas. Heinicke regarded his tight finish’s manner 4 instances in Week 3, resulting in 42 yards and a rating in Washington’s 43-21 drubbing by the hands of Buffalo. This weekend’s tilt in Atlanta ought to equally yield a bunch of factors, so fireplace up LT82 at these modest prices with out hesitation. The Falcons rank twenty seventh in fantasy factors allowed to tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers at Packers (DK: $3,100 | FD: $5,000)
Do you imagine within the energy of the ‘Muth? The Penn State product’s robust play has successfully dismissed Eric Ebron from Pittsburgh’s offense, and but the rookie will be drafted for $200 lower than the veteran on DraftKings. How? Freiermuth grabbed three of his 5 targets final week, one in every of which landed him in the long run zone. Ebron caught none of his three targets. Case closed. Even higher, Ben Roethlisberger’s struggles to throw the deep ball play proper into the younger tight finish’s palms. Everybody might be smash-playing rookie Najee Harris after his redonkulous 19 targets in opposition to Cincy final week (Harris caught 14 for 102, in fact, as a result of I traded him final week). I’ve a sneaking suspicion Green Bay will monitor Harris higher, probably releasing up the ‘Muth-man. Only one group has surrendered extra fantasy factors to the tight finish place than the Packers. To my two PSU cousins: Please don’t inform Mr. Freiermuth about this column.
NFL DFS Picks Week 4: D/ST sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (DK: $2,700 | FD: $4,600)
After a terrific 2020 marketing campaign, the Colts protection sat close to the highest of many fantasy analysts’ sleepers lists this preseason. They have began off 2021 in disappointing style, with simply 22 fantasy factors via three weeks. Fret not, Indy house owners, you’re going to South Beach this week! The Dolphins offense below Jacoby Brisset yields rather more alternative for defensive factors than the Colts’ earlier three opponents (Seahawks, Rams, and Titans). Give me Indy’s D/ST on a budget.