We lastly had some semblance of normalcy within the NFL throughout Week 4, as favorites went 9-7 towards the unfold, marking their first profitable week of the 2021 NFL season. However, there have been nonetheless many shocking outcomes, together with outright wins by the Giants and Jets and a victory by the Cardinals that left them because the NFL’s lone unbeaten workforce.
That mentioned, issues are beginning to stage out after a loopy begin to the season. The NFL continues to be stuffed with parity and underdogs will proceed to pull off upsets on a week-to-week foundation. But the higher groups will proceed to emerge the additional we get into every season.
We’re now a month into the NFL season and bettors must be excited at utilizing the gathering of knowledge that they now have to affect their selections. That entails maintaining a tally of line actions, shifting odds, traits and accidents. The gamblers that do that may come out on high as a rule.
At (roughly) the quarter-pole of the season, it is also OK to begin taking the data of groups into accounts. There are nonetheless some pretenders disguised as contenders on the market, however typically talking, the groups which are 0-4 might be thought of unhealthy. The ones which are 3-1 or 4-0 can typically be thought of good.
Of course, that is only one issue within the evaluation. There are nonetheless methods to spot overrated groups by taking a look at previous outcomes, personnel benefits and extra. So, do not simply blindly belief the groups with the best file. It would not all the time work.
Here’s a take a look at Sporting News’ best bets for Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season, together with picks towards the unfold, moneyline bets, over/below wagers and a few participant props.
- NFL best bets Week 5
- Best NFL moneyline bets Week 5
- Best NFL over/below bets Week 5
- Best NFL participant prop bets Week 5
(All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Bills (+3) at Chiefs
The Bills have shaken off the rust after a gradual begin to the 12 months on offense. Now, they’ll have an opportunity to proceed their dominance towards a weak protection.
The Chiefs stopped their two-game dropping skid towards the Eagles final week, however they nonetheless surrendered 30 factors in that recreation. They are permitting a mean of 31.3 factors per recreation on the season.
Meanwhile, the Bills have been wonderful on offense in current weeks and are scoring a mean of 39.3 factors per recreation throughout that span. That contains two shutout wins over the Dolphins (35-0) and Texans (40-0).
Buffalo is not doubtless to maintain that up towards Patrick Mahomes, however they no less than have the personnel wanted to make stops on protection. They are forcing a mean of two.5 punts per each offensive rating that they permit. That ranks first within the NFL. The Chiefs rank final in that class with 0.3 punts compelled per offensive rating.
If the Chiefs and their Twenty second-ranked third-down protection cannot get the Bills off the sector, then Buffalo may have a superb likelihood to maintain this one shut and probably win. As such, getting them as a field-goal underdog is an efficient worth. They have the expertise wanted to keep stage with the Chiefs even in entrance of a hostile Arrowhead Stadium crowd.
Patriots (-8.5) at Texans
The Texans performed nicely in two video games to start the 2021 NFL season. However, with out Tyrod Taylor, they’ve been utterly misplaced.
Houston has failed to cowl the unfold in both of the video games that Taylor hasn’t began after protecting in every of the primary two. Davis Mills has confirmed to be an ineffective alternative for Taylor and the Texans’ offense has sputtered badly because of his efficiency.
Texans per-game averages with Davis Mills beginning
The Texans are dealing with a Patriots protection that has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per recreation (185) and the sixth-fewest factors per recreation (17.5) this season. They simply held Tom Brady to zero landing passes and the high-flying Buccaneers’ offense scored simply 19 factors.
Mac Jones has confirmed to be a stable beginning quarterback to date and the Patriots are higher than their 1-3 file would point out. They would have crushed the Dolphins Week 1 if not for a late Damien Harris fumble they usually very practically beat the Bucs final week in a recreation the place few gave them an opportunity to compete. Thus, they’re far superior to this reeling Texans workforce.
The Patriots ought to give you the chance to win and canopy towards Houston. They have a 10-3 file towards Houston all-time, however they’ve misplaced the final two conferences. It’s secure to say that Bill Belichick will need revenge for these defeats and can need his workforce to bounce again after a tricky loss towards Brady’s Bucs.
Broncos (+1.5) at Steelers
This recreation figures to be a hardcore defensive battle. The Broncos are coming off a 16-point loss to the Ravens throughout which they misplaced their beginning quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater. He is probably not ready to play in Week 5, however Denver should still be a stable guess.
The Steelers have struggled immensely to date this 12 months on offense. They have not been ready to rating a lot in any respect and are averaging simply 16.8 factors per recreation this 12 months. That’s tied for the fourth-worst within the NFL.
The Broncos have a robust protection. They are permitting simply 12.3 factors per recreation the second-fewest within the NFL, and they need to give you the chance to give Ben Roethlisberger some hassle this week.
Roethlisberger is coping with an injured pec and now additionally has an injured hip. He’s 39, so these accidents might hamper his downfield throwing means. His offensive line hasn’t performed nicely this season both, so that may restrict his time to make selections and performs inside the pocket.
Pittsburgh’s offense ought to battle towards Denver. Even if Drew Lock begins at quarterback and has problems with his personal, the Broncos must be positioned to win this one, particularly in the event that they get again one or two of the offensive linemen that missed their final recreation (Graham Glasgow and Dalton Risner). Feel free to belief them and to proceed fading the Steelers.
Browns moneyline (+102) at Chargers
The Chargers are favored by 1.5 factors on this recreation as of this writing. They are coming off back-to-back wins towards the Chiefs and the Raiders, s it is pure that they’d be thought of barely higher than the Browns.
That mentioned, the Chargers have but to face a protection like that of the Browns. Cleveland has allowed the second-fewest yards within the league and has restricted every of its final two opponents to single-digit level totals. They have recorded 25 QB hits and 11 sacks throughout that span and should give you the chance to make the most of a weak hyperlink on the Chargers’ offensive line.
Right deal with Bryan Bulaga is on IR due to groin and again accidents, and that has thrust Storm Norton into motion. Norton has allowed 18 pressures and 6 QB hits in 248 snaps for the Chargers. He ranks 69th out of 73 certified offensive tackles, per Pro Football Focus. Cleveland will certainly look to assault him with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney.
Herbert could give you the chance to negate that stress by throwing rapidly, as he has executed this season, however he might additionally make some errors. And it is price noting that when he confronted the defenses of Dallas and Washington earlier within the 12 months, he threw an interception in every recreation and the Chargers averaged simply 18.5 factors per recreation. The Browns possess a more durable protection, as their secondary is getting wholesome they usually have one of many league’s best move rushes.
Norton’s presence tilts this matchup barely within the Browns’ favor. Getting them at barely higher than even odds is a worthwhile funding.
Bears moneyline (+205) at Raiders
This is a dangerous play, because the Bears a 5.5-point underdogs on this matchup. They’re additionally taking part in on the street in Las Vegas, which is proving to be a tricky place to play.
That mentioned, the Raiders are bordering on overrated. They have a file of 3-1, however they’ve some points. They received two video games in additional time and Derek Carr helped carry them to victory every time. It can be more durable to try this towards the Bears.
The Bears have one of many best move rushes within the NFL. They are averaging a league-high 3.8 sacks per recreation, and as Chargers defensive finish Joey Bosa defined after Los Angeles’ “Monday Night Football” win, Carr would not precisely do nicely below stress.
“We knew once we hit him a few times, he really gets shook,” Bosa said. “And you saw on [Christian Covington’s] sack, he was pretty much curling into a ball before we even got back there. Great dude, great player…but we know once you get pressure on him, he kind of shuts down.”
Bosa is true. In reality, Carr has a profession file of 2-13 in video games the place he’s sacked 4 or extra instances. The Bears have recorded no less than 4 sacks in three consecutive video games and have posted a 2-1 file in that span.
Add in the truth that the Raiders have the worst run-blocking offensive line within the NFL and the Josh Jacobs and Peyton Barber are banged up, and the Bears appear like a pleasant worth right here. If the moneyline is a bit too dangerous on your liking, betting Bears (+5.5) is a good various.
Patriots at Texans: UNDER 39.5 (-110)
This is a low level whole, however there are a number of points with each groups that might make this a low-scoring affair.
As talked about earlier, the Texans are averaging simply 4.5 factors per recreation with Davis Mills at quarterback. It appears unlikely that they’ll rating a lot on a Patriots protection that simply restricted Tom Brady and the Buccaneers to 19 factors, and that is very true when taking a look at Bill Belichick’s numbers towards rookie quarterbacks.
Belichick owns a file of 22-6 towards rookie quarterbacks and over his final six video games towards rookies, his defenses have allowed solely 9.5 factors per recreation. That features a recreation towards the Jets the place they restricted Zach Wilson to six factors.
The Texans are at risk of one other single-digit scoring day, so it is going to be arduous for the groups to go over this whole right here and not using a huge efficiency from the Patriots. Mac Jones and Co. are averaging simply 17.8 factors per recreation to date this 12 months, so even when they exceed that, they could solely climb into the mid-20s.
Betting the below won’t be enjoyable, but when ever there was a recreation to do it for, this might be the one.
Dolphins at Buccaneers: OVER 47.5 (-115)
The Buccaneers have one of many worst secondaries within the NFL proper now. It’s by no fault of their very own. Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis have all been injured in current weeks and the workforce’s depth simply cannot sustain with the higher receiving weapons within the NFL.
The Dolphins do not have an explosive offense, however they do have DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki. Those three ought to give the Tampa Bay protection some hassle supplied that Jacoby Brissett can distribute the ball to them.
Either approach, the Bucs are permitting a mean of 26.3 factors per recreation this 12 months they usually’ve solely held a workforce to below 24 factors as soon as. That got here final week towards the Patriots in a rain-drenched recreation throughout which Bill Belichick’s offense operated conservatively. The Dolphins and their robust pass-catching weapons might trigger extra hassle on this one than many anticipate.
The Bucs are going to have to win in high-scoring video games so long as their secondary is banged up. Feel free to belief the over right here, because the Dolphins are doubtless to rating no less than a bit on this one. And even towards a tricky Miami secondary, Brady will discover a approach to transfer the ball and get some factors.
Player props can be added all through the week main up to video games.
Zach Wilson passing yards: OVER 242.5 (-114)
The Falcons’ protection is not excellent. They’ve struggled this 12 months by the air and have allowed 11 passing touchdowns and 1,096 passing yards on simply 139 passing makes an attempt. Every quarterback that they’ve gone up towards has posted no less than 264 passing yards towards them. This contains 290 from Taylor Heinicke final week.
Can Zach Wilson have an analogous efficiency? It’s actually potential. The Jets’ rookie hasn’t appeared nice throughout his rookie season, however he performed three powerful defenses out of the gate. He performed towards the Titans in Week 4 and threw for 297 yards towards them. He is averaging practically 35 move makes an attempt per recreation, and he figures to come shut to that quantity once more on this contest.
The recreation script right here will doubtless favor Wilson throwing. The Falcons have a tendency to get into shootouts due to their poor protection and competent offense. This could possibly be a back-and-forth recreation wherein Wilson will throw loads.
If that is something like Washington’s 34-30 win over Atlanta final week, Wilson may have an opportunity to eclipse 300 passing yards for the primary time in his profession. Betting on him to get no less than 250 looks like a straightforward choice; as long as he avoids crushing errors, he ought to break this quantity.