The 2021 NCAA Tournament is about to tip off and potential bettors can be spending the following couple of days analyzing every part in regards to the bracket and looking for the best matchups to focus on and bracket-busting sleepers to depend on.
It will not simply be in bracket swimming pools and competitions that almost all are taking a look at although. Bettors can be trying to exploit some prop bets and discover methods to money in on a few of these huge upsets as properly.
As all the time, there are some basic March Madness prop bets out there in 2012. Is a 12 seed going to upset a 5 seed? Will a First Four crew make it to the Sweet 16? Those are typically two of the preferred props on a yearly foundation. But followers and bettors alike can attempt to predict the seeding of the winner, which groups would possibly make a Final Four run, and a complete lot more forward of the match.
Here’s a take a look at a few of the higher match prop bets to contemplate, together with some longshots to advance within the match.
March Madness prop bets 2021
Will a 12 seed advance previous a 5 seed?
The 12-5 upset is a staple of everybody’s March Madness bracket. You’ve gotta decide at the very least one, proper? Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 groups in 1985, there have been exactly five years where a 12-seed has failed to win. That’s it. While a kind of years is recent in latest reminiscence — it occurred in 2018 — it is nonetheless extraordinarily uncommon that at the very least one No. 12 seed does not advance. In reality, it is more doubtless that a number of 12 seeds will advance, as that has occurred 18 instances within the 34 NCAA Tournaments since 1985.
The worth is probably not nice right here with Yes -370, however it’s the apparent decide right here, and historical past tells us it must be straightforward cash.
Will any First Four crew make the Sweet 16?
The First Four began again in 2011. In its nine-year historical past, 4 groups have superior out of the opening spherical and made it at the very least to the Sweet 16. Those have occurred in 4 completely different seasons, in order that signifies that 44 % of the time, the “Yes” aspect of this wager would hit. Of course, it is value noting that no First Four crew even made the Round of 32 in 2019 and whereas a First Four crew has made the Sweet 16 in 4 completely different years, solely 4 of 36 groups have really made it. That’s a mark of 11.1 %. That would clarify why there’s slightly additional juice on Yes right here.
Still, Yes appears like an interesting possibility, particularly because the Tom Izzo-coached Michigan State Spartans are within the First Four and are prime for an upset. We’ll take an opportunity based mostly on them alone and hope that if they can not make noise UCLA, Wichita State, or Drake could make a mini match run.
Odds of every seed profitable the match
- 1 seed -159
- 2 seed +440
- 3 seed +900
- 4 seed +950
- 5 seed +1300
- 6 seed +1300
- All different seeds +1750 or increased
DraftKings Sportsbook lists only one by way of 11 seeds as having an opportunity to win the match (although betting on a ten seed was unavailable as of this writing). Since 2000, a No. 1 seed has received the match 14 instances making them the apparent favourite right here. The worth is not nice, however historical past would recommend that the likes of Gonzaga, Michigan, Illinois, or Baylor may have an excellent probability to take residence the title.
Beyond that, 2 and three seed have received 5 of the opposite six title video games because the flip of the millennium with the No. 3 seed really holding a slight benefit with a mark of three wins. The solely different seed to win since 2000 was the shocking UConn Huskies who noticed Shabazz Napier make them a victory over the 8-seed Kentucky Wildcats.
It’s onerous to advocate betting on any crew exterior of the top-three seeds. Maybe you possibly can take an opportunity on the No. 8 seed (+1500) should you’re a believer that blue blood North Carolina can go on a title run, however usually, sticking to the top-three might be the best transfer. Of these teams, the 2s and 3s present essentially the most worth, however we’ll give the Iowa, Ohio State, Alabama, Houston group of two seeds a slight edge over the Kansas, Arkansas, West Virginia, Texas group of three seeds. Either possibility is interesting although, so be happy to take an opportunity on which group you just like the best.
Each 1 and a pair of seed’s probabilities of making Final Four
- Gonzaga -210
- Baylor +115
- Illinois +145
- Michigan +220
- Houston +350
- Iowa +350
- Alabama +390
- Ohio State +480
Of the No. 1 seeds, Gonzaga would seem to have the clearest path to the title, as anticipated. They are the highest seed within the match, in any case. However, there’s little worth with the West Coast Conference crew, so it is in all probability best to wager elsewhere right here or contemplate betting Gonzaga to win the entire match at +200 should you like them sufficient to achieve the ultimate 4.
Michigan would be the best wager of the opposite No. 1 seeds. They have the longest odds, however there may be some upset potential with the two seed of their area, Alabama, having to face Rick Pitino’s Iona Gaels and 3-seed Texas attending to face both Michigan State, UCLA, or BYU early. For that purpose, Michigan looks as if an honest wager, although they could possibly be examined early within the Round of 32 towards the winner of St. Bonaventure vs. LSU.
Of the No. 2 seeds, Iowa is essentially the most interesting. They have Roberto Garza, a Wooden Award candidate, and could possibly be the crew to beat within the West area if Gonzaga stumbles. The solely 2 to keep away from would doubtless be Alabama, as there may be some upset potential with them early. They are an excellent crew, however the path is just too harmful to take an opportunity on them at this stage.
NCAA Tournament winners best bets: Top seeds
- Gonzaga +200
- Michigan +800
- Iowa +1700
- Oklahoma State +3500
We need not rehash why Gonzaga, Michigan, and Iowa are stable bets right here. If you are keen to wager them as potential Final Four candidates, try to be keen to be on them as potential winners. Having three choices clustered on one aspect of the bracket is probably not superb, however all of them have an opportunity to win.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is a pleasant sleeper. They are in Illinois’ draw and must get by way of the Fighting Illini and the Houston Cougars to make noise, however they’ve the potential No. 1 decide within the 2021 NBA Draft, Cade Cunningham, at their disposal. If he can get and keep sizzling, the sky is the restrict for the Cowboys.
NCAA Tournament winners best bets: Sleepers
- LSU +10000
- UNC +10000
- Syracuse +15000
If you need to get slightly loopy, these three groups all have some upside. LSU ranks fifth in offensive effectivity, per the KenPom rankings, they usually practically received the SEC Tournament title over Alabama. They’re means underseeded as a No. 8 seed. If their offense will get sizzling, look out.
UNC is one other 8 seed to contemplate. They’re coached by Roy Williams who’s 15-0 within the first spherical of the NCAA Tournament with UNC. We’ve seen lower-seeded groups with good teaching go on late match runs, and if UNC can get by Wisconsin and Baylor of their first two video games, they are going to have a shot to go on a deeper-than-expected match run.
The final two instances that Syracuse has been a double-digit seed, they’ve gone to the Final Four and Sweet 16. Not too shabby. Jim Boeheim might spark his crew and provides them an opportunity to go on one other sudden deep run after they snuck into the match. They could possibly be value a roll of the cube at that value.
And should you’re cautious of taking an opportunity on any of those groups to win the match, at the very least contemplate them as worth choices to make the Final Four or Sweet 16 (if the latter turns into out there). Those props pay out properly too, as you may see by way of the desk beneath.
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