Fun reality: If you fill out an NCAA Tournament bracket and don’t choose no less than one 12-over-5 upset, your submission is mechanically thrown out. True story.
OK, that is not truly a real story. But if you happen to’re not selecting a 12-over-5, why are you even filling out a bracket? It’s a double-digit upset, which is enjoyable, and historical past reveals us there’s a fairly darn good likelihood no less than one 12 seed goes to be enjoying no less than two video games.
Here’s a whole breakdown of the historical past of 12 vs. 5 matchups in the NCAA Tournament, together with probably the most memorable upsets and necessary numbers to know whereas filling out your March Madness bracket.
History of 12 seed vs. 5 seed upsets in NCAA Tournament
There actually is one thing magical about these 12-5 video games. Think about this: In the previous 40 years, there have been 50 12-over-5 upsets, and on the similar time there have solely been 52 11-over-6 wins and 55 10-over-7 outcomes. Remember, groups seeded on the No. 5 seed line are typically ranked in the highest 20 in the polls, whereas groups on the 7 seed line are barely in the “also receiving votes” class, and but the 5 seeds lose nearly as a lot because the 7 seeds.
And as an alternative of telling you yearly there’s been a 12-over-5 upset, it’s a lot — MUCH — simpler to simply checklist the years it didn’t occur: 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018. That’s it, 5 years. That’s the complete checklist.
How many instances have no less than two No. 12 seeds won? Let’s look: 1990, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2009. 2012, 2013, 2014, 2019. That’s 13, if you happen to didn’t really feel like counting. History reveals us it’s greater than TWICE as more likely to have no less than two 12 seeds win than to have zero 12 seeds win.
But wait, there’s extra!
Here’s a listing of the years the place THREE 12 seeds beat a 5 seed: 2002, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2019. Yep, 5 instances. So in the previous 40 years, we’ve seen as many years with three 12 seeds profitable video games as we’ve seen zero 12 seeds profitable video games. Heck, in the 2013-14 tournaments, No. 12 seeds went 6-2 in opposition to No. 5 seeds.
So, y’know, choose no less than one 12-over-5 upset, people.
|1985||Kentucky def. Washington||66-58|
|1986||DePaul def. Virginia||72-68|
|1987||Wyoming def. Virginia||64-60|
|1989||DePaul def. Memphis State||66-63|
|1990||Dayton def. Illinois||88-86|
|1990||Ball State def. Oregon State||54-53|
|1991||Eastern Michigan def. Mississippi State||76-56|
|1992||New Mexico State def. DePaul||81-73|
|1993||George Washington def. New Mexico||82-68|
|1994||UW-Green Bay def. California||61-57|
|1994||Tulsa def. UCLA||112-102|
|1995||Miami (Ohio) def. Arizona||71-62|
|1996||Drexel def. Memphis||75-63|
|1996||Arkansas def. Penn State||86-80|
|1997||College of Charleston def. Maryland||75-66|
|1998||Florida State def. TCU||96-87|
|1999||Detroit def. UCLA||56-53|
|1999||Missouri State def. TCU||96-87|
|2001||Utah State def. Ohio State||77-68 (OT)|
|2001||Gonzaga def. Virginia||86-85|
|2002||Tulsa def. Marquette||71-69|
|2002||Missouri def. Miami (Fla.)||93-80|
|2002||Creighton def. Florida||83-82 (2OT)|
|2003||Butler def. Mississippi State||47-46|
|2004||Pacific def. Providence||66-58|
|2005||Milwaukee def. Alabama||83-73|
|2006||Montana def. Nevada||87-79|
|2006||Texas A&M def. Syracuse||66-58|
|2008||Villanova def. Clemson||75-69|
|2008||Western Kentucky def. Drake||101-99 (OT)|
|2009||Wisconsin def. Florida State||61-59 (OT)|
|2009||Arizona def. Utah||84-71|
|2009||Western Kentucky def. Illinois||76-72|
|2010||Cornell def. Temple||78-65|
|2011||Richmond def. Vanderbilt||69-66|
|2012||South Florida def. Temple||58-44|
|2012||VCU def. Wichita State||62-59|
|2013||Ole Miss def. Wisconsin||57-46|
|2013||California def. UNLV||64-61|
|2013||Oregon def. Oklahoma State||68-55|
|2014||Harvard def. Cincinnati||61-57|
|2014||North Dakota State def. Oklahoma||80-75 (OT)|
|2014||Stephen F. Austin def. VCU||77-75 (OT)|
|2016||Little Rock def. Purdue||85-83 (2OT)|
|2016||Yale def. Baylor||79-75|
|2017||Middle Tennessee def. Minnesota||81-72|
|2019||Oregon def. Wisconsin||72-54|
|2019||Liberty def. Mississippi State||80-76|
|2019||Murray State def. Marquette||83-64|
|2021||Oregon State def. Tennessee||70-56|
12 seeds vs. 5 seeds by the numbers
- 51-93: Record for 12 seeds vs. No. 5 seeds
- 35.4 %: Overall profitable proportion for 12 seeds since 1985
- 20: Largest margin of victory for a 12 seed; Eastern Michigan over Mississippi State (76-56)
- 1. Smallest margin of victory for a 12 seed; 4 instances, first by Ball State over Oregon State (54-53)
- 7: Number of instances a 12 seed has won in extra time
- 2: Number of instances a 12 seed has won in double extra time
- 1: Buzzer-beater wins for 12 seeds: Western Kentucky over Drake (101-99)
- 21: 12 seeds to achieve the Sweet 16
- 1: 12 seeds to achieve the Elite Eight
Has a 12 seed ever won March Madness?
No, a 12 seed has by no means won the NCAA Tournament, however you need to maintain the concept in the “not very likely but not impossible” class. Remember, there have been a number of 11 seeds to crash the Final Four, and loopy issues can occur in a 40-minute basketball sport.
Of the 21 12 seeds to achieve the Sweet 16, solely the 2002 Missouri Tigers truly won that Sweet 16 contest to advance to the Elite Eight. That was a proficient however inconsistent group headlined by Kareem Rush, the junior with the graceful left-handed shot, with sophomores Rickey Paulding and Arthur Johnson and shot-happy senior Clarence Gilbert.
The Tigers knocked off Miami (Fla.) in the opener, then cruised previous 4-seed Ohio State by 16 in the second spherical. Instead of dealing with the No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16, they performed No. 8 UCLA; the Bruins had upended Cincinnati in double extra time. Mizzou cruised previous UCLA, too, profitable 82-73. In the Elite Eight sport in opposition to No. 2 Oklahoma — a Big 12 rival that was 34-5 getting into the sport and had crushed the Tigers by 13 factors in their lone regular-season matchup — Mizzou hung powerful regardless of foul bother and Gilbert’s taking pictures woes (he completed the sport 1-for-16 from the sphere).
The Tigers reduce Oklahoma’s result in three factors at 70-67 with below three minutes left, however by no means received any nearer in an 81-75 loss.
Lowest seed to win the NCAA Tournament
Since the event expanded to 64 groups in 1985, we’ve seen 5 double-digit seeds attain the Final Four:
- 11 seed LSU in 1986
- 11 seed George Mason in 2006
- 11 seed VCU in 2011
- 10 seed Syracuse in 2016
- 11 seed Loyola Chicago in 2018
All 4 misplaced earlier than reaching the title sport. Only 4 groups seeded decrease than the No. 3 seed line have ever won the nationwide title: one 4 seed (Arizona in 1997), one 6 seed (Kansas in 1988), one seven seed (UConn in 2014) and one 8 seed (Villanova in 1985). No 5 seed has ever won. The Villanova story is the stuff of legend; a plucky, methodical 8 seed that reached the title sport by grinding out a sequence of slender wins (three by three factors or fewer) and dealing with off in opposition to the may Georgetown Hoyas in the championship sport.
It’s thought of by some as the most important upset in NCAA Tournament historical past. But right here’s the factor: It makes for an awesome David and Goliath story, however Villanova was fairly darn good. In the 1985 and 1986 NBA Drafts, three starters from that 1985 group went in the highest 30 picks (Ed Pinckney at 10 and Dwayne McClain at 27 in 1985 and Harold Pressley at 17 in 1986; Gary McLain went in the seventh spherical in 1985). Factor in that Villanova had already performed Georgetown powerful TWICE that 12 months — losses by solely two factors and 7 factors — and, sorry, it would not make for a top-five all-time upset.
It does, although, make for a fairly cool championship story.