On stage on the launch of BMW’s all-electric i3 in 2013, Herbert Diess claimed the corporate had “completely redesigned mobility”. The mannequin, one of many first mass-market electric automobiles, would, he predicted, “rewrite the rule book of our industry”.
Eight years on, Diess is certainly rewriting the rule e book. But at Volkswagen, the place he’s the driving power behind the group’s €35bn push into battery-powered autos within the aftermath of the diesel emissions scandal.
Meanwhile the corporate he left in 2015 is enjoying catch-up within the EV market.
Electric fashions made by its closest rivals, such because the Mercedes luxurious EQS and VW’s Audi e-tron vary, are already on sale. Both manufacturers are additionally including a number of new electric fashions to their line-ups. BMW will solely begin delivering its flagship iX and i4 electric automobiles to prospects in November.
Far from being rewarded for its pioneering spirit, BMW was punished for being “too early”, mentioned Michael Muders, a fund supervisor at Union Investment, a high 20 BMW shareholder.
“They burnt €2bn on the i3, and the market was not ready yet,” he mentioned. Faced with regular, however muted demand for the automobile, BMW didn’t observe up with the extensively anticipated i5, and several of the engineers and designers who worked on the i range left, principally for EV start-ups.
When electric autos lastly started to take maintain up to now couple of years — greater than 3m are anticipated to be bought in 2021 — Muders mentioned, BMW “were not prepared, they were late”. The firm “had to start from zero, or almost from zero,” mentioned Ingo Speich, portfolio supervisor at Deka, one other BMW investor.
BMW chief govt Oliver Zipse strongly disagrees. “I don’t think we are slower,” he mentioned final month, on the sidelines of the Munich car present. “Among premium manufacturers we have sold the most electrified cars this year.”
Certainly, within the 9 months to the tip of September, BMW bought nearly 232,000 electrified automobiles, placing it behind solely Tesla, China’s BYD and micro EV producer Shanghai GM Wuling worldwide, in accordance to figures compiled by Bernstein.
However solely 60,000 of these had been pure electric automobiles, such because the mannequin bought by BMW-owned Mini. The relaxation had been plug-in hybrids, which include a combustion engine however can run on battery just for quick intervals.
More pure electric BMWs are on the best way. As nicely because the iX and i4, BMW will supply a battery-powered mannequin in “every single relevant segment” by 2023, chief monetary officer Nicolas Peter informed the Financial Times, together with variations of the bestselling 5 Series and the X1 SUV. Over the following 10 years, BMW plans to ship 10m totally electric autos.
Yet the corporate can be decidedly not planning to convey its combustion-engine line-up to an early finish. Its assumption is that half of the automobiles bought in 2030 will likely be petrol or diesel fashions, and Zipse mentioned in September “when you say you are not going to serve [this half of the market], you are setting yourself on a course to shrink”.
BMW’s public place is at one thing of a distinction with its key rivals, who’ve been battling it out to ship ever extra bold EV targets. Mercedes-owner Daimler mentioned in July it might be “in a position” to go all-electric by 2030, whereas Audi announced in August that 2026 could be the final yr it launched a petrol or diesel mannequin.
Their positioning is backed up by a forecast from consultancy McKinsey, which predicted final month that the three largest car markets — Europe, the US and China — could be about 70 per cent electric by the tip of the last decade.
But Zipse mentioned that BMW was undecided the change would occur so rapidly. “I can now only look at the time between 2021 and 2030 . . . everything else is ambition,” he mentioned. BMW, he added, “wants to remain profitable”.
His frankness has not been rewarded by buyers. While Daimler shares have risen 42 per cent this yr and VW, which owns Audi, is up by greater than 30 per cent, BMW inventory has risen simply over 20 per cent.
And whereas the corporate, which is greater than 45 per cent owned by the Quandt-Klatten household, just isn’t underneath as a lot stress from shareholders, “we are not happy with our capital market valuation,” Zipse mentioned.
BMW’s announcement final month that it was elevating its revenue margin steering from between 7 and 9 per cent, to between 9.5 and 10.5 per cent — within the midst of a semiconductor disaster that has devastated the sector and brought on gross sales to drop by a third — definitely helps.
Jürgen Pieper, an auto analyst at German non-public financial institution Metzler, believes it is not going to be lengthy earlier than the market takes a second have a look at BMW. On profitability, “they are the winners of the last four or five quarters among the premium brands”, he mentioned.
“Maybe the VWs and the Teslas have the more consequential [electric vehicle] platforms,” Pieper added, “but then you sit in a BMW and think: this product is just great.”
BMW additionally mentioned it might be prepared for a extra quickly rising electric automobile market if its predictions had been mistaken, with its devoted all-electric “Neue Klasse” vary due to be unveiled in 2025.
It has dedicated to utilizing recycled and recyclable supplies in future fashions, and just lately invested in Lilac Solutions, a US start-up that claims it could actually extract lithium for EV batteries from salt water.
But there aren’t any plans to observe rivals with increased electric automobile targets.
“We think twice before we communicate something,” Peter informed the FT. “We are not going to change and overpromise against something which we are not going to deliver.”