Are strong technicals enough to bring Bitcoin price to $100K in 2021?

After scaling up to a relative excessive of round $53,000 simply over two weeks in the past, it appeared as if Bitcoin (BTC) was nicely on its means to reclaiming its former all-time highs. However, the sequence of occasions that unfolded over the previous week has seen the world’s largest cryptocurrency by whole market capitalization lose practically 13% of its worth, with a single BTC at the moment buying and selling close to $45,800.

That mentioned, the aforementioned volatility appears to have left Standard Chartered’s cryptocurrency analysis unit utterly unfazed, with the analysts referring to Bitcoin’s most recent plunge as being a “false dip” whereas reiterating {that a} year-end goal of $100,000 per BTC continues to be fairly achievable for the flagship cryptocurrency.

The banking behemoth believes that Bitcoin can have hit $100,000 by “late 2021 or early 2022,” a transfer that will probably be accompanied by an enormous spike in the worth of Ether (ETH) as nicely. In reality, the analysis workforce pointed out that Ether is “structurally” valued at a year-end price level between $26,000 and $35,000, nevertheless, in order for that to occur, BTC should scale up to $175,000. 

Contributing components

To get a greater concept of whether or not a year-end projection of $100,000 per BTC continues to be possible, Cointelegraph reached out to Ben Caselin, head of analysis and technique at cryptocurrency trade AAX. In his view, final Tuesday’s sell-off was a traditional “sell the news” transfer, including that he believes that an elaborate “bear trap” might have been at play. Caselin advised Cointelegraph:

“I do expect $100K is still in play for Bitcoin this year — if anything, $100K would be underwhelming. In fact, if we follow PlanB’s stock-to-flow, we are still moving in the lower band, tracing ‘worst-case-scenario prices,’ which stood at $47K last month, $43K in September, and no less than $135K at the end of the year.”

He added that when it comes to Bitcoin, there’s extra worth in taking a look at on-chain knowledge reasonably than price technicals alone, because it permits customers to achieve a extra high-resolution view of what’s truly occurring throughout the community in real-time. 

Similarly, Tommy Schreiner, senior analysis analyst at crypto knowledge supplier TheTIE, advised Cointelegraph that there’s nonetheless a wholesome probability that Bitcoin can attain $100,000 by the shut of 2021:

“$100K seems as ridiculous perhaps as $50K did last year, but there are factors in play that don’t completely out-rule that scenario. The recent pullback was mostly a de-levering of the market, as a large percentage of leveraged open interest got wiped out and effectively reset all the bullish traders who were going YOLO.”

Schreiner additional emphasised that regardless of all of the financial turmoil throughout the globe, the United States Federal Reserve has proven no indicators of stopping the cash printer, one thing he believes to be a very good signal for comparatively riskier property equivalent to cryptocurrencies. 

Furthermore, he highlighted that layer-one options equivalent to Solana, Terra, Avalanche, Polygon and Fantom have continued to bring in new cash into the worldwide digital asset ecosystem in latest months, one thing that will additionally assist spur BTC’s worth. 

“NFTs [nonfungible tokens] are burning a huge amount of Ethereum every day, despite pricing out a lot of retail users. So if $100K seems ridiculous, perhaps look at how far crypto has come in just a year,” Schreiner mentioned.

Nick Spanos, co-founder of Zap Protocol, believes that El Salvador’s latest acceptance of Bitcoin as authorized tender has the digital foreign money nicely on its means to hitting the $100,000 mark by the end of the year. “Ether is also looking to hit $10,000 by then,” he mentioned.

Some doubts for $100,000

Lennix Lai, monetary markets director at cryptocurrency trade OKEx, believes that whereas Bitcoin’s future appears poised for good issues, that doesn’t essentially imply the premier digital foreign money will shut out the 12 months at $100,000. He advised Cointelegraph:

“I think we would see a short-term correction considering the loom on upcoming tapering from the U.S. Bitcoin is still very sensitive to the global money supply. Yet at the same time, the cryptocurrency is becoming a legitimate alternative asset class and everyone is looking for certain portions of asset allocation.” 

Lai did concede that if in the near-to-mid future even when 1% of the world’s whole wealth had been to circulation into Bitcoin, then a price goal of $100,000 per BTC may fairly simply be attained.

Similarly, for Igneus Terrenus, head of communications at cryptocurrency trade Bybit, probably the most compelling case for Bitcoin’s price reaching $100,000 this 12 months stays the approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, which, in his opinion, will assist open up the BTC market to new individuals, equivalent to retirement funds and wealth administration merchandise. 

“SEC punted the [BTC ETF] decision from Sept. 8 down to its new date of Nov. 14 — still within the calendar year of 2021. Anecdotal evidence shows that almost all wealth managers are asked by their clients about Bitcoin exposure. An ETF may just be the right vehicle for this to happen,” he advised Cointelegraph. 

Bitcoin’s technicals look strong 

In spite of latest volatility, Bitcoin’s fundamentals appear to be fairly strong in the intervening time. In this regard, Charles Edwards, creator of one of many world’s most well-known Bitcoin metrics, Hash Ribbons, just lately claimed that so long as the flagship cryptocurrency is ready to hover above its all-important $42,000 resistance zone, it is going to proceed to stay in the inexperienced.

Late final 12 months, Edwards predicted that by the top of 2021, Bitcoin might be taking a look at a price goal of between $100,000 and $200,000. He mentioned he could be “shocked” if Bitcoin didn’t hit $50,000 in 2021, a projection that got here true after the foreign money reached its all-time excessive of $63,000 earlier this 12 months.

In Edward’s view, one of the necessary variations between this present rally and former ones is the comparatively low stage of retail curiosity that has been witnessed throughout the board. In reality, to attain a brand new all-time excessive this 12 months, he believes Bitcoin can have to spend a substantial period of time above the $50,000 vary. “I think that would reengage more retail interest,” he mentioned.

Even although $100,000 is probably not in the playing cards for Edwards, he believes the market is slowly however absolutely closing in on the price level. However, in order for that to occur anytime in the approaching three to 4 months, he believes that both renewed retail curiosity wants to be generated or a major variety of purchases from main S&P 500 firms like Tesla want to happen.

Looking forward

When in contrast with earlier occasions, the financial results of the 2020 halving have been fairly tame up till now, with Bitcoin having solely skilled a 4x enhance in its worth. In comparability, we will see that in the years following the 2012 and 2016 halvings, BTC’s worth rose by 55x and 15x, respectively, thereby suggesting {that a} transfer to $100,000 may nonetheless be potential.

It will probably be fascinating to see how the approaching few days play out for the cryptocurrency market at giant, particularly as regulators all around the world proceed to tighten their grips on this still-nascent business.